The Realization of Re-migration Expectations among Long-Term Migrants in Sweden

Abstract

Within the literature on re-migration, covering both return and onward migration, little is known about the complex decision-making processes that precede a subsequent move. There is a distinct divide between studies analysing anticipated re-migration desires, and behavior. Furthermore, as re-migration is most common during the first years after arrival, less attention has been paid to long-term migrants. However, migrant long-term residents compose a rising share of many countries’ populations, and many of them have maintained ties to their country of origin, including the idea of returning someday. Re-migration anticipations are theoretically important because they shape integration behavior and reflect how individuals weigh attachments, networks, and opportunities across different countries. Whether these anticipations are realized or not is equally revealing, as discrepancies between plans and outcomes illuminate how life course circumstances potentially change aspirations and capabilities. In this paper, we analyse anticipated and actual international mobility and immobility of migrant long-term residents in Sweden. We examine the extent to which anticipated migration might predict actual behavior and analyse which factors are related to the realization (or not) of re-migration expectations. The data comprise a unique linkage of the Swedish Level-of-Living Survey for Foreign-Born (LNU-UFB, 2010-12; n = 3,226 migrant permanent residents aged 18-75) with prospective, high-quality population register data through 2018, yielding up to eight years of longitudinal follow-up. Our main findings show that anticipated migration is an important determinant of re-migration, though it explains only a modest share of its variation: while it carries statistically meaningful predictive weight, it is insufficient as a standalone predictor of actual moves. Moreover, transitioning into unemployment after the stated expectations is associated with a lower likelihood of realizing intended mobility outcomes, whether staying or re-migrating. This suggests that the loss of economic resources constrains the capability to act on prior mobility plans, and that staying in a destination country is an active process which is re-negotiated over time.

* This article belongs to a special issue on “Migration Trajectories Across the Life Course”.