Monitoring of German Fertility: Estimation of Monthly and Yearly Total Fertility Rates on the Basis of Preliminary Monthly Data

Abstract

This paper introduces a set of methods for estimating fertility indicators in the absence of recent and short-term birth statistics. For Germany, we propose a set of straightforward methods that allow for the computation of monthly and yearly total fertility rates (mTFR) on the basis of preliminary monthly data, including a confidence interval. The method for estimating most current fertility rates can be applied when no information on the age structure and the number of women exposed to childbearing is available. The methods introduced in this study are useful for calculating monthly birth indicators, with minimal requirements for data quality and statistical effort. In addition, we suggest an approach for projecting the yearly TFR based on preliminary monthly information up to June.